The Fork at Tryon CCI4*-S Preview: Boyd Martin's Moment

The US Equestrian Open arrives at The Fork at Tryon this weekend after an almost two-month break from competition. This is the fifth-to-last qualifier before Morven Park, with entries already flowing in for the series final.

This weekend, The Fork fields over 30 entries, meaning extra points are up for grabs in the battle for the series title. With more than 25 starters, the top five finishers have the chance to earn a higher amount of points: 1st place (50 pts), 2nd place (45 pts), 3rd place (40 pts), 4th place (35 pts), and 5th place (30 pts).

Caroline Pamukcu, sitting third in the series standings, arrives with three rides and will be looking to improve on her previous counting scores this weekend. But it's Boyd Martin who has grabbed our attention. Sitting 5th in the series with only 4 of 6 counting scores - and one of these being a mere 5 points - The Fork is Boyd's chance for series contention. Sitting 80 points behind the series leader Phillip Dutton and with a combined 42% win chance across his three horses, this weekend is likely to change the series standings.

Listen to the 'The Fork at Tryon Preview Show' on the US Equestrian Open Podcast now.

Boyd Martin's Moment

This venue has been golden for Boyd before. He has won The Forks CCI4*-S twice, taking victory in 2019 with Tsetserleg TSF and again in 2023 with Commando 3. Now he returns with three different horses: Miks Master C, Shanroe Cooley, and Luke 140. 

The Last Ten Winners of The Fork at Tryon

Both of Boyd's top contenders are new rides for him, having taken over from Liz Halliday. With Liz, Miks Master C won four CCI4*-S events and finished 3rd at Kentucky CCI5* in 2023, while Shanroe Cooley also finished on CCI4* podiums. This will be Boyd's second event and first CCI4* with both horses. While Boyd may take a conservative cross country approach when developing his new partnerships, the proven class of both horses under Boyd's expertise means they are still likely to feature prominently on the leaderboard.

In contrast, Luke 140 is Boyd's well-known partner, together since 2019. He was 3rd in the CCI3*-S at Bromont which was his first event after finishing inside the top 10 at Kentucky 5* in the spring. 

What It Takes to Win The Fork

Boyd Martin may arrive with a competitive string but The Fork doesn't hand out victories easily. Looking at the last 10 runnings, winners have finished on a score anywhere from 25.7 to 38.5. With the average dressage score sitting at 29.0 and the average winning score being 32.0 - you can only afford to add a few penalties along the way.

The Dressage Battle

Leading after day one is certainly a good start but only 2 of the last 10 dressage leaders have gone on to win. Boyd's proven he can win from anywhere - front-running with Commando 3 in 2023 or climbing from 3rd in 2019. When looking at the EquiRatings 6 Run Average (6RA), Miks Master C leads the field with a 25.8 6RA while HSH Connor and Caroline Pamukcu follow with 27.0. Luke 140 and Cooley Chromatic (Sara Schulman) also sit on sub-30 6RAs.

The Best Dressage Horses in the Field

Show Jumping phase 

Show jumping has played a decisive role at The Fork over the years — but not always in the way you’d expect. The venue's clear rates vary wildly - from 63% in 2017 down to just 14% in 2023, but on average only 38% are likely to manage a clear round on Saturday.

Clear Rates Year by Year | (Clear= clear jump & time)

The most reliable show jumpers in the field are Lindsay Traisnel's Bacyrouge, Ashley Adams' Quicksilver Grans, and Mary Bess Davis' Imperio Magic. Mary Bess Davis and Imperio Magic arrive to The Fork on a streak of 8 consecutive international clears. It is the longest incoming streak in the field and their round is not to be missed on Saturday.

The Speed Challenge

Saturday's cross-country delivers a solid 78% jumping clear rate - 10% above the CCI4*-S average. The real challenge lies in the speed with only 7% managing to finish inside the optimum time over the last ten runnings. The course has grown increasingly demanding in recent years, with just one combination making the time in the last five editions.

Cross Country Summary 

Clear inside-the-time rates year by year

With venue history like this, the speed horses are the one's to watch on Sunday. Based on the EquiRatings Top Speed Percentage (TSP), the fastest horses are Caroline Pamukcu's HSH Double Sixteen and HSH Tolan King, Bacyrouge for Lindsay Traisnel, and Kim Severson's Cooley Corraghy Diamond.

Who Wins?

According to the EquiRatings Prediciton Centre, Boyd Martin has three strong chances - a  28% win chance with Miks Master C, plus 10% with Shanroe Cooley and 4% with Luke 140. Add them up and Boyd sits on a 42% chance of victory, nearly three times more than his closest rival. Will Coleman and Very Dignified trail at 16%, while Sydney Elliott's QC Diamantaire sits at 15%.

Want to know more about The Fork at Tryon?

We've crunched all the numbers, analyzed every stat, and uncovered the key storylines you need to know before The Fork at Tryon kicks off this weekend. From dressage averages to cross-country clear rates, speed percentages to show jumping reliability - it's all in our comprehensive form guide. Check it out here.

When and Where to Watch

Competition kicks off Friday with dressage running from 10:50am. Cross-country starts at 11.10am on Saturday and show jumping on Sunday from 11:49am. All times are local.

You can catch all the action live on the USEF Network, powered by ClipMyHorse.TV, streaming free with a USEF Fan Membership. With Boyd's series surge on the line and three legitimate contenders in his arsenal, this weekend promises drama.

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