Can anyone catch Tamie Smith?
Tamie Smith leads the 2026 US Equestrian Open of Eventing by 20 points with all six counting slots filled. Only two more qualifiers are expected to pay the big points but Smith is unlikely to be at either. So can anyone catch her?
Smith sits on 235 points with thirteen of twenty qualifiers complete. Seven remain, and only two of them are likely to pay the big points. Smith may not be at either. We ran the math on every realistic path the chasers have left, and the lead is more catchable than the gap suggests.
Let's start with how the scoring works because it decides everything from here. Each rider counts their six best qualifier placings. The top five in the standings have all six slots filled. To gain a single point now, they cannot just add a result. They have to beat one they already own.
This rule is why the gaps are so hard to close. The top five have all done the easy work already. Their counting cards are full of strong results, so the only way to gain is to beat a score they already own, and beating a good score is a lot harder than adding a fresh one. In plain terms, a chaser has to finish near the front just to move the needle at all. Smith is simply the furthest along, thanks to her three wins worth the maximum 50, and with only two big-points qualifiers left, the chances to make up real ground are running short. Running short, but not gone.
Field size sets the points. Qualifiers with more than 25 starters pay the large scale, topping out at 50 for the win. Qualifiers with 25 or fewer pay the small scale, topping out at 40. The big scores live in the big fields, and the big fields are almost all in the East.
Seven qualifiers remain. Three are West Coast:
- The Event at Rebecca Farm on July 15
- Twin Rivers Fall on September 17
- Woodside Fall on October 2
Four are East Coast:
- Maryland International on June 25
- The Fork at Tryon on September 10
- Plantation Field International on September 17
- Stable View Oktoberfest on September 25
Two East dates do the heavy lifting. The Fork at Tryon drew 31 starters last year and Plantation Field drew 28. Both cleared the large-scale threshold, so both can pay a 50. For a chaser who needs maximum scores in bunches, that September fortnight is the whole campaign.
Here is the part that keeps the title an open question. Smith is unlikely to be at either. She is in the UK for the summer and expected home to the West Coast for the autumn, where Twin Rivers and Woodside draw smaller fields and pay the small scale. Even a clean sweep of West Coast wins tops out at 40 a time, and against her 20 floor each one nets her 20 at most. Her total is close to frozen. A near-frozen leader is a leader who can be passed, and the two big-points venues are wide open with the woman on top of the table not in them. The catch is the chasers still have to win them, against each other, on the day. An open door is not the same as a result.
William Coleman is the one real threat. He sits 20 back with four horses out at the level this year and a habit of winning the big ones. He is close enough that one strong result at a big field puts him level with Smith, but because his card is already good, he needs two strong results to go ahead of her. For the number-minded: a second place at one of the two remaining large fields is worth 45 and lifts him to 240, while on a smaller field even a win only nets him 20, enough to draw level but not to lead. He needs a second push, a 35 or better, to get there.
The catch is that all of this only holds if Smith stands still. If she adds points of her own, Will needs even bigger performances. He has the horses for it. He needs the big fields, and he needs to win at them.
Boyd Martin won the Series last year and Caroline Pamukcu stood on the podium in third. This is where string depth becomes a weapon. Pamukcu has run six different horses at the top level this year (CCI4* and CCI5*), Martin five. A rider with numbers like that can field two or three horses at one qualifier and bank several scores in a single day. Martin has done exactly this before. His Series win last year was built on big fields and multiple horses performing on the same day, and there is every reason to expect him to bring a strong team to the two large qualifiers that remain. That is his clearest route. He needs 46 points, and small fields will not get him there fast enough, but two big results at Tryon and Plantation would. Pamukcu, on 185, has the same path: a deep string aimed at the large fields, where one strong weekend can move her a long way.
Lucienne Bellissimo has the most upside per result. Her floor is just 5, so almost any placing helps her, 7th or better at a small field, 9th or better at a large one. A large-field win plus a fifth would lift her from 175 past Smith. The ceiling is there. The depth is not. She has run two horses at the level this year, Dyri and Kitsch Couture HPK. She leans on Dyri for the marquee results and is less likely to stack two big scores in one day the way the others can.
For all three the route is the same: a big haul at a big field, more than one horse firing, and Smith's autumn staying quiet. Depth makes that haul realistic. It still has to happen on the day.
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The floor problem
4th or better, or nothing
Smith's lowest counting score is 20. At a normal-sized qualifier that is 5th, so a new result has to finish 4th or higher to add a single point.
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The closest route
Coleman, 20 back
A second at one of the two large fields takes him to 240. On small fields he needs a win and more, with Smith standing still.
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The window
Two East dates
The Fork at Tryon and Plantation Field both cleared 25 starters last year. They are where the 50s live.
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The opening
Smith likely absent
UK for summer, West Coast for autumn. She probably skips both large fields, leaving the big points to the chasers, if they can win them.
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So, can anyone catch her? Yes, but it is a narrow path and it runs through Tryon and Plantation Field. Coleman is the live threat, 20 back and needing a single big result if Smith stalls. Martin and Pamukcu have the strings to take a large field, or two. Bellissimo has the ceiling on Dyri but not the numbers. Every one of those paths depends on the same thing: Smith adding little or nothing from the West Coast. The leader has all but stopped scoring. The chasers have two real chances left to make it count.
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