The Numbers Behind Rebecca Farm's CCI4*-S

Usually the story here starts and ends with the Series leader Tamie Smith, who owns four CCI4*-S wins at the venue, more than anyone in this field's history, and won the short here last year on Mai Baum with a 27.6, the lowest winning score Rebecca Farm has recorded. However, she is in Europe this year with Lillet 3, awaiting their trip to the World Championships at Aachen. Her absence takes the obvious answer off the board and turns this into a genuinely open week.

Eight combinations are left to sort it out over Jay Hambly and Bert Wood's cross-country in Montana's Flathead Valley, with Chris Barnard building the show jumping. The prediction centre does not hand it to anyone. A comeback from a four-star winner awaits, a mare in career-best form arrives off a debut win, two horses step up to the level for the first time, and a reliable first-phase performer is here to perform. Here is how the field breaks down.

Julie Wolfert & SSH Playboy lead the prediction centre on a 37% win chance and carry the field's highest Elo at 621, comfortably clear of the pack. This is a comeback. Their last international start was Stable View in 2025, so Rebecca is their first run back at this level in over a year. The pair are the most experienced combination here, having won at both the CCI4*-S and CCI4*-L level previously, and the data reads them as the one to beat. The question is fitness and tactics, as a first start back may be a prep run rather than an attempt for the time.

Stephanie Goodman & Elwenda DP arrive off a win. Two weeks ago at Aspen Farms they took Qualifier 13 on the mare's four-star debut, a 31.1 dressage, clear show jumping and the fastest cross-country round. Elwenda's clear cross-country jumping streak now runs to 12, with a positive adjusted figure, meaning she has been clear on the days others were not. The mare is 17, so the usual caveat about a green horse settling into the level doesn't apply as much here. Her one appearance at this level produced a win.

Elwenda already has form at the venue. She won the CCI2*-L here in 2024 and placed top five in the CCI3*-S last year. Goodman also steps up with a second ride, Korella VD Watermolen, who previously competed at the top-level in Europe with Renske Kroeze.

Erin Kellerhouse brings two horses up to four-star short for the first time. Bon Vivant GWF sits second on the prediction centre at 19% and holds the field's best dressage average at 31.2, alongside the sharpest show jumping record in the field. His three-star form is heavy: a Galway Downs win last time out and a run of podiums including Twin Rivers and Rebecca Farm last year. Ringwood Adios Amigo has tracked a near-identical development path and should be close behind. Both are 10 and 11 years old and stepping up a level.

Karen O'Neal & Clooney 14 are the other combination in the field (alongside Stephanie & Elwenda DP) who have already won a US Equestrian Open qualifier this year, taking Twin Rivers in April, so they arrive with Series points on the board and know what a winning week looks like. Third on the prediction centre and one of the stronger dressage records with their tests sitting tight around the 30 mark: a 31.8 at Aspen, 33.1 at Kentucky's five-star, 35.6 in the four-star long here last year, and a personal best 28 at Aspen two years ago. On this form they are firmly in the mix.

Prediction centre, win chance

Pre-competition model output for the CCI4*-S. Win and top three probability.

#	Combination	Win	Top 3
1	Julie Wolfert SSH Playboy	37%	75%
2	Erin Kellerhouse Bon Vivant GWF	19%	57%
3	Karen O'Neal Clooney 14	17%	42%
4	Erin Kellerhouse Ringwood Adios Amigo	9%	37%
5	Stephanie Goodman Elwenda DP	8%	35%
6	Madeline Backus Baratheon	6%	23%
7	Cristina Rennie Flight Of The Arabesque	3%	22%
8	Stephanie Goodman Korella VD Watermolen	1%	10%

Prediction Centre via EquiRatings.

Tamie Smith leads the US Equestrian Open of Eventing standings on 235 points and holds top spot without running this week. Will Coleman sits on 215 and Boyd Martin on 190.

Karen O'Neal is tied 10th on 70, the only entry here inside the top few places, and a strong week would move her up. Rebecca is the 15th of 20 qualifiers. The Series then pauses over summer, with The Fork at Tryon on September 10, the next eventing leg before the road runs to the $200,000 Final at Morven Park, October 8 to 11.