The Winter Equestrian Festival is at its halfway point. Tonight brings the second CSI5* 160 Grand Prix of the season to the International Arena, and while the spotlight is firmly on this evening's class, the bigger picture is already coming into focus. Five weeks from now, the Rolex US Equestrian Open Final of Jumping will take centre stage in Week 12. For the athletes lining up tonight, every round between now and then is a building block.
<h2>What to expect tonight</h2>
This is one of the toughest five-star tracks on the global circuit. The Round 1 average clear rate here is just 16% - compared to 28-35% at many other CSI5* 1.60m shows worldwide. From a field of 32 combinations tonight, EquiRatings is predicting just six clear rounds. Once riders make the jump-off, the picture improves. Historically, 58% of those who qualify go on to jump clear. But getting there is the challenge.
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<h2 dir="ltr">So which US riders are making a case?</h2>
<h3 dir="ltr">McLain Ward &amp; High Star Hero</h3>
Three time winner of this class, McLain Ward has chosen High Star Hero as his weapon of choice tonight. They carry a 71% jump-off clear rate with three wins from seven jump-off appearances.&nbsp;
Ward's predicted clear chance tonight sits at 33%, with a 4% win chance. Those numbers are modest on paper, but once he's in a second round, the conversion is ruthless -&nbsp; nearly a 50% win rate in jump-offs tells you everything about how this pair handles pressure.&nbsp;
<h3 dir="ltr">Lillie Keenan &amp; Fasther</h3>
Keenan has been quietly assembling one of the most consistent five-star profiles for Team USA. Fasther carries a 50% clear rate across 12 CSI5* 1.60m rounds in the past 12 months. Her predicted clear chance is 40%, with a 6% win chance.&nbsp;
The jump-off record makes for even better reading: six clears from ten jump-offs, six podium finishes. When this pair reaches a second round, they land on the podium.&nbsp;
<h3 dir="ltr">Katie Dinan &amp; Out Of The Blue SCF</h3>
Dinan and Out Of The Blue SCF carry a 30% clear chance tonight and a 3% win chance &mdash; sitting at the competitive edge of the field rather than among the headline names. But that's often where Week 12 stories begin. A 5th place finish with a time penalty at the World Cup of Ocala last week shows they are operating at this level and improving. Five weeks is enough time to build.
<h3 dir="ltr">Natalie Dean &amp; Acota M</h3>
Back in five-star competition after a seven-month absence, Dean and Acota M carry a 30% clear chance and a 2% win chance tonight. Having jumped double clear at this venue during WEF Week 5 last year, they may rediscover that form tonight. A name to keep on your radar as the season builds toward the Final.
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<h2 dir="ltr">The International Names They'll Have to Beat</h2>
The American riders aren't building toward Week 12 in isolation. Three names in tonight's field are impossible to ignore.
WEF Week 5 winners, Richard Vogel and Gangster Montdesir, arrive with only four rounds at CSI5* 1.60m. But they have produced four clears. A 100% clear rate. The sample size is small but so is the fault count. Keep an eye out for this ten-year-old tonight.
Runners up in this class last year, Darragh Kenny and Eddy Blue enter as the statistical favourites. a 56% predicted clear chance, a 14% win chance, and a 67% clear rate over the past 12 months. They jump last tonight.&nbsp;
Then there's the streak. Nina Mallevaey and Dynastie de Beaufour have cleared 11 consecutive CSI5* 1.60m rounds. They are only the 8th combination since 2010 to manager 11 consecutive clears in a row. EquiRatings gives them a 55% clear chance and a 13% win chance tonight. With top-five finishes in their last nine five-star Grands Prix, this partnership represents the standard every American will need to meet come Week 12.
<a href="https://jumping-prediction-centre.equiratings.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/6e5b9121-00b3-4de0-886e-9d63c69f9641.png?width=1228&amp;height=1432" alt="Gg Yej Wef 7 Win Chances "></a>
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<h2 dir="ltr">The Bigger Picture</h2>
There are four CSI5* Grand Prix in the WEF season: Weeks 5, 7, 9, and 12. Week 5 is done. Tonight is Week 7. Two more chances to win big before the Final.
In a class where only one in six combinations is expected to go clear in Round 1, the combinations that arrive in Week 12 in contention will be those who have proven they can handle this level consistently, not just occasionally.
Tonight is the next data point. Week 12 is the destination.

Mcclain Ward looking at camera while riding a horse

WEF Week 7: Who's Building Toward the Open Final?

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Main

Isabell Werth is in Wellington.&nbsp;
I could, frankly, end the preview there. Place your bets on the German "Queen of Dressage" &mdash; World No. 2, the most decorated Olympic equestrian athlete of all time, holder of 14 Olympic medals across seven Games, eight of them gold. That&rsquo;s a pretty safe bet, right?
It is, but it comes with a small caveat. Werth has not arrived on an Olympic-tested mount. If she had, the preview would end here and the story would write itself. Instead, she rides Special Blend 3 who is making his FEI Grand Prix Freestyle debut this week. What we know of their potential comes from a single German national freestyle in 2025: 79.850%.&nbsp;
Because Werth is campaigning Special Blend 3, the "Isabell Factor" is less a guaranteed victory and more a legendary bomb dropped into an already volatile field.
<h2 dir="ltr">The Rest of the Field</h2>
The field itself would be notable without Werth in it. All 11 horses have scored over 70% in the Grand Prix Freestyle at least once. Two have cleared 80%: Jewel's Goldstrike with Julio Mendoza Loor (PB: 84.230%) and Harmony's Giulilanta with Susan Pape (PB: 81.745%). Three more are within one percent of that line &mdash; Bellena with Benjamin Ebeling (79.930%), Duenensee with Kevin Kohmann (79.240%), and Special Blend 3 (79.850%, national competition). Five combinations have reached ten or more Grand Prix Freestyle starts.&nbsp;
The predictions this week are, to be direct about it, a genuine mess.
Who wins depends on which metric you trust most. By averages, it's Pape. By ceiling, it's Mendoza Loor. By starts and venue familiarity, it's Kohmann. By rider experience, it's Werth. And none of that has touched the reigning US Equestrian Open of Dressage champion, Benjamin Ebeling. While his December performance was below average, his trajectory since last June has been consistently upward. Writing them off because of a December result would be a mistake.
That's five legitimate arguments for five different winners. In the same class.&nbsp;
And that's before we get to Brittany Fraser-Beaulieu and Caroline Darcourt, who are perfectly capable of making Friday's podium more complicated.
<h2 dir="ltr">The Case for Each</h2>
Susan Pape and Harmony's Giulilanta lead the field on averages &mdash; just under 80% in the freestyle &mdash; and Pape holds the US Equestrian Open of Dressage record score outright: 81.745%, set at AGDF 3 in January. Her freestyle body of work with this horse is small (three starts), but the direction of travel is unmistakable: 78.290% in November, 79.805% in December, 81.745% in January. The pair are technically very strong, and in freestyle, that's the best position to be in. The choreography bonuses are there to reward good work, not paper over bad.
Julio Mendoza Loor and Jewel's Goldstrike have the highest personal best in the field &mdash; 84.230% &mdash; which is nearly two and a half points above anyone else's personal best. His average of 77.6% sits below Pape's, but his ceiling is a reminder that averages don't always determine outcomes.&nbsp;
Kevin Kohmann and Duenensee bring 20 starts together, the most of any combination entered. Twenty starts is a kind of knowledge that doesn't show up in raw data. That&rsquo;s experience, mileage, and familiarity with atmosphere. They average 75.4% &mdash; lower than the leaders &mdash; with a PB of 79.240%, and Kohmann knows this horse and this venue as well as anyone in the ring.
Benjamin Ebeling and Bellena are the defending champions. Ignoring their outing in December, they&rsquo;ve been on a consistent upward trajectory since last June. Their average is 76%, their PB is 79.930%, and their partnership isn&rsquo;t yet a year old.&nbsp;
Then there is Isabell Werth and Special Blend 3. The pair have no prior freestyle data at the FEI level which means no average to anchor the prediction &mdash; just a national score of 79.850%, a partnership that is clearly still developing, and one of the most accomplished riders in the history of the sport. They do, however, have a body of four FEI Grand Prix Specials, the test unequivocally known to be the most difficult test of the dressage discipline. Horses and riders consistently score below their Grand Prix average in the test. Isabell and Special Blend 3 average 71.3% in the Grand Prix. The Special? 72.4%. A full percentage point higher than the basic Grand Prix test. If that&rsquo;s what they can do with a test of technical landmines, imagine what they can do when they can choreograph the moves to the horse&rsquo;s strengths.&nbsp;
<h2 dir="ltr">A Personal Pick</h2>
From a strictly data-driven standpoint, you can argue this class five different ways. So who the heck is the pick for favorite?
If I have to pick a name, I&rsquo;m giving the nod to Susan Pape. The averages are hers, as is the momentum.
The 81.745% personal best is both the highest recent score in the field and backed by a clear progression: 78% in Germany in November, 79% in Britain in December, then 81% in Wellington less than a month ago. Her Grand Prix scores consistently land in the 70s providing the technical foundation needed to let the freestyle choreography shine. And her Grand Prix Special scores, too, trend slightly above the Grand Prix.&nbsp;
Whether she can keep her momentum &mdash; and whether I've just made the most moronic prediction in equestrian sport &mdash; with the "Queen of Dressage" breathing down her neck is a question for Friday night.&nbsp;
<h2 dir="ltr">Watch the Action</h2>
Watch all Friday Night Stars action on <a href="https://www.clipmyhorse.tv/en_US/events/18412/adequan-global-dressage-festival-vii">USEF Network</a>. The freestyles begin Friday at 7:00 ET. <a href="https://www.usef.org/membership/join-renew">Sign up for free</a> as a fan to stream the action.

A black horse in a dressage bridle with US Equestrian Open branding

Werth is in Wellington — Here's Why It's Not a Foregone Conclusion

Megan McIver sat down with Annie Bishop on this week's US Equestrian Open podcast to talk horses, risk-taking, and the goal she's finally saying out loud. Find the full episode <a href="https://pod.fo/e/391d1f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here.</a>
<h3 dir="ltr">A California Beginning</h3>
Megan is a California rider through and through. She grew up riding at Webb Ranch in Portola Valley after convincing her dad that she needed to ride horses. Eventually, beach trail rides weren't enough. Lessons followed. Then competition. Then a life built around the sport.
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Like many eventers, she didn't come from a deep equestrian background. What she had was work ethic. In high school, she rode multiple horses a day, then came home to finish homework late into the night. At Cal Poly, she balanced a full-time degree in accounting , a sorority, and worked for former Olympian Gina Miles and Bec Braitling. Megan was Gina&rsquo;s assistant trainer and it was here that she got really serious about the sport.&nbsp;
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<h3 dir="ltr">Building Something of Her Own</h3>
After formative years with Gina Miles, Bec Braitling and Brian Sabo, Megan returned to Northern California to build something of her own. She established McIver Equestrian at the Horse Park at Woodside; a serious base with four-star events on site, world-class facilities and the infrastructure to match her ambitions.
Just 15 minutes away is Eric Duvander, with whom she works and trains full time. The support system is intentional, the set-up is strategic, and her business is growing due to it.
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<h3 dir="ltr">&nbsp;</h3>
<h3 dir="ltr">Igor B: The Risk&nbsp;</h3>
If there's one horse Open fans will recognise, it's Igor B. He is known at home as Rupert but was originally named Cuddles by the breeder's daughter.
However, they are a partnership that almost didn't happen. Megan saw him in the UK while trying a different horse. The video didn't sell her and she couldn't afford him. But when she watched him walk just three steps in person, she knew.
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Buying Igor B meant risk. Loans. Stretching beyond what felt comfortable.
But Megan leaned on the advice of long-time supporters&nbsp;Leo Wang: life is about taking risks and sometimes you have to get uncomfortable to move forward.
So she bought Rupert.
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Now, after two full seasons together, which included Megan&rsquo;s first step up to four-star level, a seventh-place finish in the inaugural US Equestrian Open Series of Eventing signals that the foundations are firmly in place. The process is starting to pay off.
The next step? Go faster. When it feels right, be braver against the clock.
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<h3 dir="ltr">Kapitan Sparrow XII: The Journey</h3>
Kapitan Sparrow XII might be the most meaningful horse in the barn. He arrived hot, spooky, running through fences, and definitely not an obvious four-star prospect. But Megan saw something worth the investment.
They've worked through setbacks (including a colic episode en route to competition). They've managed quirks. They've grown up together.&nbsp;Last season saw their step up to four-star where he jumped clear cross-country in both of his two starts at the level.&nbsp;
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<h3 dir="ltr">The Goal on the Wall</h3>
In her tack room, Megan keeps written plans for each horse - two years out, three, five. At the top of her own list sits something bigger.
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For a long time, she kept that quiet. Now she is practising saying it out loud. Because saying it makes it real.
The US Equestrian Open is part of that picture. Not as a stepping stone, but as a championship in its own right. For combinations like Megan and Rupert, it is both opportunity and objective. A structured season to measure progress.
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<h2 dir="ltr">Follow the US Equestrian Open of Eventing</h2>
Check out the full Series calendar below and stay connected with the latest news and standings on<a href="https://www.facebook.com/usequestrianopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&nbsp;Facebook</a>&nbsp;and<a href="https://www.instagram.com/usequestrianopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&nbsp;Instagram.&nbsp;</a>Use #USEqOpen to join the conversation.
Also follow US Equestrian on<a href="https://www.facebook.com/USequestrian" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&nbsp;Facebook</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.instagram.com/usequestrian/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Instagram</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@usequestrian" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TikTok</a>, and&nbsp;<a href="https://x.com/usequestrian" target="_blank" rel="noopener">X (Twitter)</a>.&nbsp;
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For Sport Department questions, please contact Christy Hawkins at&nbsp;<a href="mailto:USEquestrianOpen@usef.org">USEquestrianOpen@usef.org</a>.
For media inquiries about the US Equestrian Open Series, please contact Carly Weilminster at&nbsp;<a href="mailto:cweilminster@usef.org">cweilminster@usef.org</a>.&nbsp;
For sponsorship opportunities, contact Layson Griffin at&nbsp;<a href="mailto:lgriffin@usef.org">lgriffin@usef.org</a>.

Image of Megan McIver jumping Igor B cross country

Megan McIver’s Plan to Turn Seventh into Selection

<h2 dir="ltr">Show Jumping: A First 5* 160 Win Puts Mimi Gochman in the Open Spotlight</h2>
The US Equestrian Open Final: Wellington, Week 12 | Countdown: 5 Weeks
The $300,000 Longines FEI World Cup&trade; qualifier at the World Equestrian Center, Ocala saw the 21-year-old rising star Mimi Gochman out-jump a field of Olympic veterans. In a high-pressure jump-off, Gochman delivered the performance of her career aboard Iron Maiden, jumping the only double clear to win her first-ever 5* 160 Grand Prix/World Cup. The victory was a massive statement for the home nation, with Gochman beating Brazil&rsquo;s Eduardo Pereira de Menezes and Ireland&rsquo;s Cian O&rsquo;Connor.
Gochman&rsquo;s dominance in Ocala isn't a flash in the pan but rather the continuation of a red-hot 2026 run. Just nine days prior, she claimed the CSI5* WEF Challenge Cup with Inclen BH. With two horses in winning form and confidence clearly building, she has moved firmly into contention for the US Equestrian Open title. With just six weeks until the Rolex finale in Wellington, the question now is whether she can sustain that momentum against the likes of World Number One Scott Brash and home-turf hero Kent Farrington.
<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/categories/jumping" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/93f7dc6e-604b-4d1d-913d-73eddaee42db.png?width=1080&amp;height=161" alt="Read More Jumping"></a>
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<h2 dir="ltr">Eventing: Heavy Hitters Headline Bouckaert</h2>
Next Qualifier: Bouckaert Equestrian | Countdown: 2 Weeks
The road to the 2026 Series heads to Georgia, with entries closing today for the first qualifier of the new year. Last week we looked at the <a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/the-open-weekly-first-wef-5-dressage-momentum-and-bouckaert-takes-shape" target="_blank" rel="noopener">early names on the list</a>, and since then the field has grown to 26 confirmed combinations in the CCI4*-S - meaning the winner will walk away with a full 50 points.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/ec2bc08c-7c88-4dc3-a5e7-4fd9617950fd.png?width=3204&amp;height=2600" alt="Qualifiers With More Than 25 Starters (1) (1) (1)"> It&rsquo;s a serious field to open 2026 - the kind that sets the tone for the season ahead. Here are a few standout names on the list.
Lucienne Bellissimo: The current Series leader arrives for the first time&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/new-flag-for-the-frontrunner">officially flying the American flag</a>. Bellissimo brings a two horses to the 4* with Kitsch Couture HPK and Easter Star WM, who makes her move up to the level. Her October winner, Dyri, will contest the Open Intermediate alongside Qatar M as she builds her depth for the 2026 title race.
Waylon Roberts: Currently third in the series standings, the Canadian veteran brings forward Chevalier. The new ride for Roberts in 2025 (previously campaigned by Karl Slezak) finished in the top four in all four of their international starts. This streak includes a victory in the CCI3*-S at The Fork at Tryon last September.
Buck Davidson: Currently sitting in fifth place on the Series leaderboard, Buck returns with Cooley Candyman and Cerafino D. Cerafino D already has a podium finish at this venue from October&rsquo;s opening qualifier, making him a proven competitor on this track.
Caroline Pamukcu: A top-three finisher in last year&rsquo;s series, Pamukcu brings three contenders including the notoriously fast HSH Double Sixteen. The thoroughbred was one of only two horses to win multiple qualifiers during the 2025 series. As the defending champion of this exact event, he returns to the venue where he secured victory last March by recording the fastest cross country time of the day. Pamukcu also brings HSH Connor and King&rsquo;s Especiale.
Boyd Martin: The&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/stories/reigning-us-open-of-eventing-champion-boyd-martin-named-2025-usef-international-equestrian-of-the-year">2025 Series and Final winner</a> is leaving nothing to chance, arriving with four entries. His string includes 5* superstar and previous qualifier winner Commando 3, and Cooley Nutcracker, fresh off a 3rd place finish at Pau 5*. Keep an eye on his 4* debutants Fetiche Des Rouges and Kolbeinn; both horses jumped double clear at every international start last season, with Kolbeinn winning the 3*-L at Bromont.
With two weeks to go, Bouckaert is shaping up to be a pivotal qualifier. Lucienne Bellissimo arrives with the series lead but Caroline Pamukcu and Boyd Martin bring depth, experience, and serious firepower. If she wants to extend her advantage, she&rsquo;ll have to earn it.
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/c23492d7-840b-47ef-9003-9f9fdbe46459.png?width=1240&amp;height=714" alt="E Fens Current Leaderboard of the Us Equestrian Open of Eventing (1)">
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<h2 dir="ltr">Dressage: Davis Capitalizes as Mendoza Loor Withdraws</h2>
Next Qualifier: Adequan&reg; Global Dressage Festival 7 | The Final: Desert Dressage, Thermal CA (November)
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/9d63989b-5f1c-4c8a-a6b8-f7d4d31a3eaa.png?width=697&amp;height=850" alt="Screenshot 2026 02 17 130211">
A four-horse Grand Prix Freestyle at World Equestrian Center&ndash;Ocala shifted before it even began when pre-show favorite Julio Mendoza Loor withdrew. No reason was given, though he is entered to compete in Wellington this week, suggesting a possible change in target. His absence left the door open, and Meagan Davis stepped through it.
Davis and Toronto Lightfoot won on a new personal best of 73.685%, narrowly ahead of Claire Darnell and Harrold S. Darnell improved nearly three percentage points from her previous outing at this venue&mdash;an unusually large gain at this level&mdash;and finished just 0.2 percentage points behind Davis. Two of the five judges had Darnell in first place.&nbsp;
For Davis, it was her first Series appearance since finishing third at Dressage at Devon last September. The progression with Toronto Lightfoot has been steady. &ldquo;We&rsquo;re just checking off goals left and right with Toronto,&rdquo; she said. &ldquo;Getting the personal best up there on the screen&mdash;that&rsquo;s what I&rsquo;m looking for.&rdquo; She noted a mistake in the one-tempis but pointed to stronger second ones and twos on the line. The focus, she said, is continued improvement with an eye toward Europe later this year.
Charlotte Osborne, last month&rsquo;s WEC winner, finished fourth this time. Even so, her second appearance of the season moves her into fifth on the overall Series leaderboard with 21 points. Darnell now sits tied for seventh on 20.&nbsp;
<img src="https://usef-admin.fly.dev/assets/a4c58000-e0fd-49b4-9d9d-af592ae7ed6c.png?width=1240&amp;height=806" alt="H Y6 Nq Current Leaderboard of the Us Equestrian Open of Dressage (1)">
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<h2 data-path-to-node="4">Stay in the Loop with The Open Weekly</h2>
Thanks for joining us for this week's edition! Don't forget: a fresh update of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usequestrianopen.org/categories/the-open-weekly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Open Weekly</a> drops on the site&nbsp;every Tuesday.
<h3 data-path-to-node="9">Join the Conversation</h3>
Follow us for daily highlights, behind-the-scenes content, and live updates:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.instagram.com/usequestrianopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Instagram</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://www.facebook.com/usequestrianopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Facebook</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/useqopen" target="_blank" rel="noopener">X (Twitter)</a>
<h3 data-path-to-node="6">Go Beyond the Article</h3>
Catch the latest insights and expert interviews on the&nbsp;<a href="https://sites.libsyn.com/559710" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US Equestrian Open Podcast</a>.
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Open Weekly Graphic with Mimi Gochman jumping

The Open Weekly: Breakthrough Wins at WEC and a Stacked Bouckaert Field

Five combinations from four nations contest this week&rsquo;s qualifier, but only one rider looks poised for first.
Julio Mendoza Loor enters this week&rsquo;s Grand Prix Freestyle at WEC Ocala operating in a scoring range the rest of the field hasn&rsquo;t seen. Recent qualifiers have largely been decided in the low-70s band, so when a combination can reliably produce 75% or better, the predictions become obvious. The spotlight focuses. It becomes that rider&rsquo;s class to lose, and they don&rsquo;t need a miracle to win it.
<h2 dir="ltr">A Tier of His Own</h2>
This week, Mendoza Loor is that rider.&nbsp;
He and Jewel&rsquo;s Goldstrike average 77%, with a personal best of 84.230%. You don&rsquo;t hit those numbers by accident. That requires repetition, and lots of it.
The pair have 16 FEI freestyles together. They have repeatedly scored 78&ndash;80% across venues and seasons, including two Series wins last year and a victory at WEC last March. This is an established partnership with Olympic mileage and a long scoring record at the top end. An easy favorite.
No other combination in this field averages above 73%.
That separation is not subtle. In recent qualifiers, winning scores have frequently landed in the low 70s. A pair capable of delivering a high-70 test does not need to stretch for a personal best to control this class. Mendoza Loor&rsquo;s average already sits where most of this field&rsquo;s peak ambitions lie.
Could someone produce an outlier performance? Of course. But the rest of the field will need to find something remarkable to pull off an upset.
<iframe id="datawrapper-chart-BSvns" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" title="Grand Prix Freestyle Stats: WEC Ocala February Dressage" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BSvns/1/" height="528" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" aria-label="Table" data-external="1"></iframe>
<h2 dir="ltr">The Ride for Second</h2>
The remaining combinations operate inside a narrow scoring window where the order can shift with a slightly more uphill extended trot or a more settled collected walk. Across this group, the separation between second and fifth sits within roughly three percentage points.
By the averages, Claire Darnell and Harrold S should be the clear pick for second. They average 72.9% together and have reached 77% once in the past. But here's the problem with this scoring band: the data doesn't always hold. Two weeks ago in Ocala, they finished second on 70.5%&mdash;just 0.2% behind Charlotte Osborne and Fruhlingszauber, who won with a 70.775% personal best.
When most of the field lives between 70 and 73%, small variations matter more than long-term trends. A couple of points below average is enough to reshuffle the entire podium. One slightly tense walk transition, one loss of rhythm in a pirouette, and second becomes fourth.
That scoring compression has been a consistent feature of recent qualifiers. Several combinations who regularly score above 75% have focused more heavily on the Special this season. The result is that many freestyle podiums are being decided inside that low-70s band. This is not a commentary on quality. It simply reflects what the top-end talent is choosing to prioritize this season.
But when an established high-scoring combination does enter a freestyle, none of that volatility matters. The predictions become immediately clear.
This week, Mendoza Loor and Jewel's Goldstrike take that role.
If they perform to their established average&mdash;and there is no indication that they won't&mdash;"Goldy" will be cantering with a blue sash on Saturday. If they somehow do not, well&hellip; we'll have a lot to unpack next week.

Julio Mendoza Loor rides Goldy in a winner's lap around the arena at the Pan American Games

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