Picking Team USA: The Numbers Behind USEF's World Championship Shortlist

USEF has named seven riders to the shortlist for the 2026 Dressage World Championships in Aachen later this year. Several of them have been among the dominant names in the US Equestrian Open Series all season long. Others show up with thin freestyle numbers — not because they haven’t been competing, but because the path to Worlds runs through the Grand Prix Special, not the freestyle. To qualify for the USEF National Championships, which is mandatory for World Championship consideration, riders needed to accumulate scores at the Special level this year. That's why the leaderboard position varies so widely across this group. For several of these riders, it tells you which test they prioritized, not how they've been performing. To understand who's actually ready for Aachen, you have to look past the standings and into the scoresheets. Below, a closer look at all seven contenders, and the team I'd send.

Christian Simonson and Indian Rock (and Fleau de Baian)

Series: 10th | Series avg: 80.14% | Combination Best: 83.810%

At only 23 years old, Simonson took over the ride on Indian Rock from Emmelie Scholtens last May and has been nearly impossible to beat since. In ten starts together, eight have been first place. The two “blemishes” on their record are both second-place finishes at the World Cup Final, which just happened to be Simonson's first senior championship. His Series average of 80.14% is not a number anyone else on this list is near. His 10th-place leaderboard position is a product of targeting Nationals and the World Cup Final over Series qualifiers, and nothing else.

The career data for this partnership only sharpens the picture. A Grand Prix average of 74.0%, a Special average of 74.3%, a freestyle average of 81.4%. They average a full four points clear of the next-best Grand Prix on this shortlist. Every Grand Prix Simonson has ridden with Indian Rock has cleared 70%. Every freestyle has cleared 75%. The sample is still modest, five Grand Prix, one Special, four freestyles, but it is not the size of the sample that stands out. It is the absence of a single result that wasn't competitive at international level.

Fleau de Baian, his second listed horse, has a smaller, but equally intriguing, data set: three Grand Prix starts, two Specials, one freestyle. This horse averages 70.6% in the Special and is the only other one on this list to hit that mark consistently. His single freestyle start was a modest 72.330% from a year ago when the partnership was brand new. If this pair is selected for the Championship, they’ll certainly have a new floorplan designed specifically for their strengths. 

Ashley Holzer and Hawtins San Floriana

Series: 1st | Series avg: 74.62% | Combination Best: 75.290%

Holzer leads the Series at 51 points with four qualifiers completed. A three-time Olympian who has competed at the top level since the 1980s, she is doing it this season with a relatively new partner — Hawtins San Floriana has been her mount since April 2024. The freestyle is their strongest test, and the Series has been good to them: a personal best came in their second outing of the season, and recent form (74.62% on the year) is running above their career average of 73.7%. The next step for them is the one separating competitive championship scores from the rest — consistently breaking 75% in the freestyle. They have not done it yet, but the trajectory has them within reach.

The risk in this combination is everything that happens before the freestyle. Across thirteen Grand Prix starts, only one has cleared 70%. The Special record is similarly shaky: a 68.9% career average and zero starts above 70%. In a Championship format, the Grand Prix gates the rest of the weekend. The freestyle is the case for this pair; the Grand Prix is the question the selectors will need answered before the freestyle has a chance to shine. 

Geñay Vaughn and Gino

Series: 5th | Series avg: 76.05% | Combination Best: 76.415%

Vaughn has three Series freestyle starts this season — 75.790, 75.955, 76.415 — and has won two of them, podiuming in all three. The variance across those scores is negligible, making her one of the most consistent riders on the shortlist. Her FEI freestyle average across all starts together is 74.4%, meaning current form is running roughly two points above it. She debuted a new freestyle floorplan at the 2025 Series Final, and the scores since then suggest the increased difficulty is executing.

The more interesting story for this pair is in their non-freestyle data. Across a meaningful sample — twenty Grand Prix starts, nine Specials, eleven freestyles — all three tests are trending sharply up. Gino's Grand Prix average has moved from 68.0% career to 70.5% in recent months, a jump of +2.5 points. His Special average has moved from 67.6% to 71.8%, a jump of +4.2 points. That is no rounding error. His scores used to swing — a career low of 62.7 in the Grand Prix and scores drifting into the mid-60s on a bad day. That's the Gino in the rearview. The Gino of the last six months is consistently in the low 70s across all three tests. The direction of the data is unmistakable.

Anna Marek and Fayvel

Series: 32nd | Series avg: 76.44% | Combination Best: 78.995%

Marek won the Series leaderboard race last season and went on to finish third at the Final on 77.830%. Her one freestyle start in 2026 — 76.435% at AGDF 3 in January — puts her 32nd on the leaderboard. That number tells you nothing useful about where she stands in the World’s conversation. Like several riders on this list, she's been competing in the Special, logging the scores required for Nationals qualification and the World Championships pathway.  

What the career data tells you is that Fayvel is a freestyle horse. She averages 76.5% across twelve freestyles, hits 75% in five of every six starts, and has a personal best at 78.995%. On this shortlist, only Indian Rock has a better freestyle profile. Her recent form is running fractionally above her career average — not a horse on the rise, but a horse that's never really come off it. The Grand Prix and Special are a different conversation: career averages in the high 60s and low 70s put her in the middle of the pack, and the Special has softened slightly in recent months. None of that changes the horse’s last-day potential. But like Hawtins San Floriana, they must score well enough in the Grand Prix and Special to make it to the dance. 

Meagan Davis and Toronto Lightfoot

Series: 22nd | Series avg: 73.03% | Combination Best: 73.685%

Davis won her first Series start of 2026 at WEC Ocala in February, posting a personal best of 73.685% with Toronto Lightfoot. Her second start came in at 72.370%. 

Toronto Lightfoot has the deepest record of any horse on this shortlist — fifteen Grand Prix, seven Specials, and five freestyles with Davis. That depth matters, because at a glance the headline numbers don't make an obvious case for her selection. Career averages of 67.0% in the Grand Prix, 68.6% in the Special, and 72.2% in the freestyle put this pair last or near-last on the list in every test. The argument for her place here isn't where she's scoring. It's where she's heading. Across that 27-start sample, all three tests are trending up: the Grand Prix from 67.0% to 68.6% in the last six months, the Special from 68.6% to 69.3%, the freestyle from 72.2% to 73.0%. With a sample that big, those aren't statistical noise. The career Grand Prix floor of 60% — the kind of result that doesn't show up in the recent half of the scoresheet — is the history this pair’s recent climb is pulling away from. Davis flagged earlier this year that the focus was on continued improvement with Europe in mind. The data is showing it.

Jordan LaPlaca and Gold Play

Series: 40th | Series avg: 72.25% | Combination Best: 72.250%

LaPlaca and Gold Play have a longer history together than their Series record suggests. The pair logged seven Small Tour starts in 2023, then disappeared from the FEI scoresheet for over two years. They returned this year at Big Tour, stepping up to CDI3* and CDI4*, and have ten starts so far. Their Series debut came at WEC Ocala this February, where Gold Play posted 72.250% in the Grand Prix Freestyle. That is the only freestyle on record for this pair.

The case for selection is the Special. Across four Specials this season, Gold Play has gone 68.3, 70.4, 69.9, and 71.0 — half above the 70% line, with the most recent the highest of the four. The career average of 69.9% is the third-strongest Special profile on the shortlist, and unlike most pairs on this list, Gold Play gains ground on day two. Every weekend this season, his Special score has come in higher than his Grand Prix score by an average of two and a half points. That is the metric the selectors seem to be weighting. 

Kasey Perry-Glass and Heartbeat W.P.

Series: Not entered in 2026 | 2025 Series avg: 76.10% | Combination Best: 76.290%

Perry-Glass and Heartbeat W.P. are the metronome of this shortlist. Across thirty-one FEI starts, what jumps out isn't a single big number — it's how rarely their Grand Prix and freestyle scores move from the average. Their career freestyle average is 75.1%, with four of every five starts above 75%. Grand Prix career average sits at 69.4%, and the spread between her best and worst result in any test is the tightest on the list. Heartbeat W.P. does not surprise on the upside, but he does not betray on the downside either. 

In 2026, their Grand Prix scores have actually lifted. Her recent Grand Prix average has climbed past 70% for the first time, a one-point gain that matters more for this pair than it would for a more volatile one. When a metronome speeds up, it stays sped up. A pair who delivers 75% in the freestyle and an honest 70% in the Grand Prix every time out is exactly the kind of selection a championship roster wants.

Who would I pick?

I don't envy USEF's team selectors. This is a strong group of American riders and each has a compelling upside. But what fun is data analysis if I don't pick a side? Below is the team I'd send to the Dressage World Championships.

1. Christian Simonson & Indian Rock.

Look, if the US wants to bring home a medal, Simonson and Indian Rock are their best shot. They're consistent. They're flashy. They deliver. And they've already proven they can handle a big stage — second place at the World Cup Final tells you they can ride under pressure. Not picking this pair is like throwing a slant pass on the 1-yard line instead of handing it to Marshawn Lynch with the Super Bowl on the line. IYKYK.

2. Geñay Vaughn & Gino

In the last six months, Gino has been scoring more than four points above his career average in the sport's most technical test — the Special. That kind of technical accuracy bodes well for the freestyle, where strong execution doesn't just carry over but compounds when the artistic scores are added on top of it. He's trending above his average in the other two tests as well. Two more months to sharpen, solidify, and shine. I have no doubt this pair can do it.

3. Kasey Perry-Glass & Heartbeat W.P.

Picking the third anchor for this team was not easy. Remember, only the best three Grand Prix scores count toward the team medal, so this slot is about reliability. What gave Heartbeat the edge over Fayvel is direction: in the last six months, Heartbeat's Grand Prix is trending up and Fayvel's is trending down. If I'm a selector trying to get a medal around the American team's neck, I'm looking for the most reliable Grand Prix combinations on the list. That is literally Heartbeat. He has the lowest Grand Prix variance of any combination on the shortlist and the third-highest hit rate above 70% — one in every three tests, he clears it. 

4. Anna Marek & Fayvel

Not to worry, Fayvel fans — he still makes the cut. For the last slot, I wanted a pair with real upside but whose off-day wouldn't sink the team. (Remember: the worst of the four Grand Prix scores gets dropped.) That's Marek and Fayvel. Their recent Grand Prix slide is a little worrying, but it’s only by about half a point. The upside outweighs it. They score above 70% in the Grand Prix more than two out of every five starts. That’s not an inconsequential metric when the rest of the shortlist (outside of Indian Rock) is at 33% or below. And if they make it through to day three, this pair has the second-highest freestyle average on the list. They've been knocking on the door of 80% for a while.

Honorable Mention: Jordan LaPlaca & Gold Play

The one horse who could push Fayvel off this list is Gold Play, depending on his performance over the next few months. He has one of the best Special averages on the shortlist and the second-best lift from Grand Prix to Special — gaining 2.5 points on average between the two tests, which makes him a real day-two contender. The problem is the day before. His Grand Prix average is just too low right now to be reliable for the team event.

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