Dutta and Don Design DC Head to TerraNova Still Chasing Their First Series Win

Susan Dutta and Don Design DC have completed seven US Equestrian Open legs, but they haven't won one yet. That could change this weekend at TerraNova. On freestyle averages, which tend to be decent predictors of final scores, Dutta is the clear favorite. Trouble is, her Grand Prix scores have been eroding while her freestyle holds. 

Dutta's Diverging Scores 

Dutta's last three freestyles average 72%, which is strong, and she always improves upon whatever she puts down in the Grand Prix. The problem is that her Grand Prix scores have been drifting downward (64.650, 63.780, 62.800 in her last three), while the freestyle numbers have held. That's pushed her GP-to-freestyle lift to +8-9 points recently, roughly double her earlier career rate of +4-6. She's leaning on choreography to cover technical mistakes, and that bandaid is only sustainable for so long. Either the Grand Prix rebounds or the freestyle eventually follows it down. 

With four qualifying rides completed, she needs a fourth-place finish or better to drop her lowest score and move up in the standings. But a long-awaited win puts her in the Series top 10.

Kohmann's Proven Formula Faces a Debut Question

Kevin Kohmann is the reason Dutta’s win chance deserves a second look. He and Famous are making their Grand Prix Freestyle debut together, (the horse's one freestyle on record was an amateur-level test with a different rider) and Kohmann's Grand Prix average on Famous sits around 66%. 

That’s not a lot to go on for a prediction, but although the horse is unknown, the rider is absolutely not. Kohmann has completed over 20 Grand Prix Freestyles with his World Cup mount, Duenensee. Together, they’ve never scored below their Grand Prix score in the freestyle and consistently add six to eight points. It’s unlikely that a brand new partnership would have the same results, but if we apply even two-thirds of that to Kohmann’s baseline with Famous the projection lands around 70.3% — competitive for second and within range of Dutta on a day when her Grand Prix scores are trending the wrong direction. Apply the full amount and he's projecting around 72.3%, which puts him directly on par with the class favorite. That's an optimistic read for a debut freestyle on a horse he's ridden in just six FEI tests. But it's not a baseless one.

He currently sits 20th in the Series on two qualifying scores. Last place this weekend moves him to 16th. A win puts him in the top eight.

The Rest of the Field

Charlotte Burssens is the hardest rider in this field to predict. Her freestyle scores span nearly nine points with Elfentanz — 63.4 on the low end, 72.4 at the top — and she has scored below her Grand Prix score in a freestyle twice. Her Grand Prix form has been trending down lately, but her results at higher-level shows tend to suffer while she rebounds at CDI3*, which is what this weekend is. If she's going to land in the upper part of her range, this is the class for it.

Micah Deligdish and Carpe Diem De Massa have one Grand Prix Freestyle together, and it came in nearly four points above their Grand Prix average. One data point is one data point, but a debut freestyle that lifts rather than drags suggests something is working. 

Finally, Sahar Daniel Hirosh and Handsome C are a very new partnership having only been showing together since March. The horse carries a personal best of 71.155 under a prior rider, so the talent is there, even if the partnership hasn’t yet accessed it yet. 

Stream TerraNova Dressage III live on the USEF Network. Sign up for free as a fan to watch the action. The Freestyle kicks off at 4 p.m. EST on May 2.