Werth is in Wellington — Here's Why It's Not a Foregone Conclusion

Isabell Werth is in Wellington. 

I could, frankly, end the preview there. Place your bets on the German "Queen of Dressage" — World No. 2, the most decorated Olympic equestrian athlete of all time, holder of 14 Olympic medals across seven Games, eight of them gold. That’s a pretty safe bet, right?

It is, but it comes with a small caveat. Werth has not arrived on an Olympic-tested mount. If she had, the preview would end here and the story would write itself. Instead, she rides Special Blend 3 who is making his FEI Grand Prix Freestyle debut this week. What we know of their potential comes from a single German national freestyle in 2025: 79.850%. 

Because Werth is campaigning Special Blend 3, the "Isabell Factor" is less a guaranteed victory and more a legendary bomb dropped into an already volatile field.

The Rest of the Field

The field itself would be notable without Werth in it. All 11 horses have scored over 70% in the Grand Prix Freestyle at least once. Two have cleared 80%: Jewel's Goldstrike with Julio Mendoza Loor (PB: 84.230%) and Harmony's Giulilanta with Susan Pape (PB: 81.745%). Three more are within one percent of that line — Bellena with Benjamin Ebeling (79.930%), Duenensee with Kevin Kohmann (79.240%), and Special Blend 3 (79.850%, national competition). Five combinations have reached ten or more Grand Prix Freestyle starts. 

The predictions this week are, to be direct about it, a genuine mess.

Who wins depends on which metric you trust most. By averages, it's Pape. By ceiling, it's Mendoza Loor. By starts and venue familiarity, it's Kohmann. By rider experience, it's Werth. And none of that has touched the reigning US Equestrian Open of Dressage champion, Benjamin Ebeling. While his December performance was below average, his trajectory since last June has been consistently upward. Writing them off because of a December result would be a mistake.

That's five legitimate arguments for five different winners. In the same class. 

And that's before we get to Brittany Fraser-Beaulieu and Caroline Darcourt, who are perfectly capable of making Friday's podium more complicated.

The Case for Each

Susan Pape and Harmony's Giulilanta lead the field on averages — just under 80% in the freestyle — and Pape holds the US Equestrian Open of Dressage record score outright: 81.745%, set at AGDF 3 in January. Her freestyle body of work with this horse is small (three starts), but the direction of travel is unmistakable: 78.290% in November, 79.805% in December, 81.745% in January. The pair are technically very strong, and in freestyle, that's the best position to be in. The choreography bonuses are there to reward good work, not paper over bad.

Julio Mendoza Loor and Jewel's Goldstrike have the highest personal best in the field — 84.230% — which is nearly two and a half points above anyone else's personal best. His average of 77.6% sits below Pape's, but his ceiling is a reminder that averages don't always determine outcomes. 

Kevin Kohmann and Duenensee bring 20 starts together, the most of any combination entered. Twenty starts is a kind of knowledge that doesn't show up in raw data. That’s experience, mileage, and familiarity with atmosphere. They average 75.4% — lower than the leaders — with a PB of 79.240%, and Kohmann knows this horse and this venue as well as anyone in the ring.

Benjamin Ebeling and Bellena are the defending champions. Ignoring their outing in December, they’ve been on a consistent upward trajectory since last June. Their average is 76%, their PB is 79.930%, and their partnership isn’t yet a year old. 

Then there is Isabell Werth and Special Blend 3. The pair have no prior freestyle data at the FEI level which means no average to anchor the prediction — just a national score of 79.850%, a partnership that is clearly still developing, and one of the most accomplished riders in the history of the sport. They do, however, have a body of four FEI Grand Prix Specials, the test unequivocally known to be the most difficult test of the dressage discipline. Horses and riders consistently score below their Grand Prix average in the test. Isabell and Special Blend 3 average 71.3% in the Grand Prix. The Special? 72.4%. A full percentage point higher than the basic Grand Prix test. If that’s what they can do with a test of technical landmines, imagine what they can do when they can choreograph the moves to the horse’s strengths. 

A Personal Pick

From a strictly data-driven standpoint, you can argue this class five different ways. So who the heck is the pick for favorite?

If I have to pick a name, I’m giving the nod to Susan Pape. The averages are hers, as is the momentum.

The 81.745% personal best is both the highest recent score in the field and backed by a clear progression: 78% in Germany in November, 79% in Britain in December, then 81% in Wellington less than a month ago. Her Grand Prix scores consistently land in the 70s providing the technical foundation needed to let the freestyle choreography shine. And her Grand Prix Special scores, too, trend slightly above the Grand Prix. 

Whether she can keep her momentum — and whether I've just made the most moronic prediction in equestrian sport — with the "Queen of Dressage" breathing down her neck is a question for Friday night. 

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