Countdown to the Final: Five Lessons From the First Five-Star Weekend in Wellington.

The CSI5* $500,000 Fidelity Investments Grand Prix has become a big springboard to successful seasons over the last decade. Last year, this class was won by Kent Farrington and Greya. Kent went on to rewrite the record books with nine five-star victories in a single season, seven with Greya. He had won the class with Gazelle back in 2017 - and would set the pre-2015 benchmark of 8 Grand Prix/World Cup wins in a single season. Martin Fuchs’ 2019 campaign - after a win here with Clooney was similar. 

With Cloudio and United Touch already in the string, this weekend’s victory for Richard Vogel and Gangster Montdesir could well be the set up for a superstar season. 

1. Richard Vogel and Gangster Montdesir Will Be Contenders

We had a German winner of last year’s Open and on this evidence, we could well have another. Before the class, the EquiRatings numbers gave Gangster Montdesir just a 38% chance of going clear - a caution born from limited mileage, not lack of quality. Under the Saturday night lights, the ten-year-old delivered again, producing his fourth consecutive clear in CSI5* Grand Prix competition from four starts. He then went fastest in the jump-off in 42.65 seconds to take his second win at 5* Grand Prix.

"I couldn't wish for anything more and I’m just thrilled with how he jumped tonight and how he was fighting for me," Richard Vogel said in the press conference.

"Wellington is really our home in the winter months. It’s my fifth circuit here. It has always been good to us, good to our horses. Every year we are able to step up a couple of new, younger, exciting horses and Gangster is one of them this year."

The Lesson: A 100% clear rate across four starts at 160 is a meaningful signal. We can begin to discard the small-sample caution now. If Gangster Montdesir is at the Open Final, he will be a genuine contender.

2. Nina Mallevaey and Dynastie de Beaufour Are Writing History

Third place on Saturday told only part of the story. The number that mattered was their 11th consecutive clear round at CSI5* 160 - a streak achieved by only eight combinations in modern history (since 2010).

"She (Dyanastie de Beaufour) is so amazing in every way. Since the first one (5* Grand Prix), she felt like she could do anything, she felt like she had done it for her whole life. I think she’s incredible,smart, scopey, fast… she is an amazing horse."

The Lesson: Reliability is a competitive weapon. The top-ranked U25 rider in the world, the top ranked female in the sport, Mallevaey and Dynastie de Beaufour had a breakout season last year winning Brussels and are emerging as a major contender for the non-US riders hoping to take the title off home soil. 

3. Lillie Keenan’s Home Soil Threat

Lillie Keenan and Argan de Beliard jumped double clear and finished fourth, 2.64 seconds off the podium. We have been highlighting here in recent weeks how the addition of Highway TN to an already top string could be the tipping point and she goes to the next level. This weekend was a reminder of her strength in depth. Earlier during WEF she won the NetJets CSI4* Grand Prix with Fasther and claimed victory on Highway TN in their first show together. Three horses winning across multiple levels over the past few weeks - Lillie Keenan will have lots of choices when it comes to the Final. 

The Lesson: The US home advantage is real and backed by form. Keenan enters the next five weeks as one of the riders to watch and a leading US contender to keep the trophy on American soil. 

4. Kent Farrington and Greya Are Still the Ones to Beat

The defending champions and the pre-competition favorites, they did not win on Saturday, but they posted the fastest jump-off time of the night and only the final rail cost them the win. Their CSI5* 160 jump-off record remains exceptional, with nine wins and 11 podium finishes from now 15 jump-off appearances. Greya’s conversion rate of Jump Off appearances to wins is unmatched at this level. Their round 1 rail last year cost them a place in the Jump Off but if they make it in Week 12, they will be favorites to win it. 

While Saturday did not convert, Kent Farrington’s response is likely to be even more determined push for the win.

The Lesson: Do not be distracted by a single rail. Farrington and Greya remain the favorite for the US Equestrian Open of Jumping Final as things stand and the combination to beat until proven otherwise.

5. The Track Will Be Unforgiving - And Watch the Time

Gregory Bodo, who designed the Paris 2024 Olympic course, built Saturday's track. Only eight of the 39 starters jumped clear in Round 1. The resulting 20% clear rate sits just below the already demanding 10-year average of 23%, and is notably tougher than many global CSI5* 160 classes, where clear rates of 28–35% are not unusual.

But there is another statistic that deserves equal attention. 16 of the 39 riders collected time penalties meaning over 40% of the field was caught out by the clock.

The Lesson: The Final will reward horses and riders who are simultaneously accurate and fast. Pairs who struggle with time allowed under pressure are flagged.

Five weeks out, the picture is starting to sharpen. The contenders are emerging, momentum is building, and history suggests what works in Wellington early on tends to hold. When the Rolex US Equestrian Open of Jumping Final rolls around on March 28 (WEF Week 12), the lessons from Week 5 are likely to be big storylines.