The Crystal Ball: How Data Predicts the Next Generation of US Superstars
In equestrian sport, we often rely on "gut feeling" to spot the next big thing. We watch a young horse gallop across the country and think, “That one looks like a future Kentucky winner.” But what if we could call it before it happens?
For more than a decade, EquiRatings metrics have been flagging future 5* and championship horses while they were still competing at 3*. And the latest numbers suggest the biggest future players in the US Equestrian Open aren’t coming from nowhere, they’ve been hiding in plain sight all along.
1. HPR
Think of the High Performance Rating (HPR) as the metric that measures individual brilliance. It answers one specific question: “How impressive was that particular ride?” Traditional scoring only tells you who finished first, but the HPR strips away the "noise" to reveal the true quality of a performance.
Unlike a standard penalty score, HPR accounts for variables that raw results miss. It weighs field strength, course difficulty, winning margins, and even the judging. Because of this, a horse finishing fifth in an Olympic-caliber class can earn a higher HPR than a win at a weak local event.
2. Elo
If HPR is the stopwatch that catches a spike in brilliance, Elo is the market. It measures long-term consistency over a horse's entire career.
The system is self-correcting and works like a points exchange. You gain significant points for beating a high-rated opponent and you lose more for underperforming against a weaker field. Over time, the rating converges on the horse's true competitive level and long-term consistency.
While HPR isolates a single moment of greatness, Elo reveals who is consistent, world-class competitor.
To test whether the data really does spot greatness early, we analyzed HPR and Elo scores from US horses aged 7-10 competing at the three-star level across three snapshots in time: roughly 10 years ago, five years ago, and today.
The Proof: 2014-2016
The "Time Machine" View
RF Scandalous recorded a 92 HPR in the CCI3*-L at Ocala in 2015 while still an emerging name. That performance with Marilyn Little foreshadowed both team and individual gold at the Pan American Games later the same year, followed by top-five finishes at Luhmühlen 5* (2017) and Kentucky 5* (2018).
Matching that number was Mai Baum (Tamie Smith), who logged a 92 HPR at Jersey Fresh’s CCI3*-S. Long before his landmark Kentucky 5* victory, the data already marked him as exceptional. He would go on to become the first US winner of Kentucky in 15 years and the highest-rated US horse ever recorded on the EquiRatings Elo.
Fernhill Fugitive, ridden by Phillip Dutton, recorded one of the highest Elo ratings in this cohort during the period - a level of consistency that later translated into two top-ten finishes at the Kentucky 5*. Copper Beach also stood out on Elo at just nine years old under Buck Davidson. After a series of top-level wins, he went on to partner rising star Cosby Green through her first five-star appearances.
Even beyond the headline names, the pattern holds. Elite 3* HPRs (90+) and high Elo’s correlate strongly with big 5* performances, championship appearances, and Hall of Fame careers.
The Validation: 2018-2021
The Current Titans
Fast-forward five years and the picture sharpens. The data highlights many familiar names— Chin Tonic HS, FE Lifestyle, Jump Jet, Cooley Quicksilver—two recent contenders at the US Equestrian Open Final stood out.
As a 3* horse, Miks Master C topped the list with the highest-rated performance of this group with a 97 HPR at Maryland's CCI3*-S. At the time, he was piloted by Maya Black, then being produced by Liz Halliday all the way to a 3rd place at Kentucky 5* before Boyd Martin took the ride and won the inaugural US Equestrian Open Final.
The Elo also identified Off The Record early. He sat near the top of this cohort’s Elo table thanks to a string of high‑placing runs for Will Coleman. This combination then went on to a string of impressive results but most notable an Aachen victory, a World Championship team silver medal and most recently, a 2nd place finish at the US Equestrian Open
The Prediction: 2024-2025
The Future of the US Equestrian Open
Turn to the present.
Highest Rated Performances (HPR)
Conner, ridden by Isabelle Bosley, leads the pack with a massive 96 HPR at the 2025 Maryland CCI3*-L. This performance line puts the 8-year-old in the same rarified air as past legends at this level.
The “90+ Club” also includes performances from names like Rockett 19 and Alyssa Phillips, Shanroe Cooley with Boyd Martin, and Jaguars Duende ridden by Sharon White.
Highest Elo Ratings
While HPR measures single-event brilliance, the EquiRatings Elo tracks cumulative strength, which of course favours older horses rather than younger. Jaguars Duende (Sharon White) currently tops the leaderboard for 7 to 10-year-olds, followed closely by Tamie Smith’s Lillet 3.
Fernhill Bertus is the only 8-year-old to feature - an impressive achievement given he has to rank ahead of older horses who’ve had far more opportunities to build Elo points. He’s been remarkably consistent, never recording an international jumping penalty in either show jumping or cross-country, and capped his season with a top-10 finish at Maryland’s CCI3*-L. It’s a combination firmly worth watching as the years progress.
Looking across a decade of data, the pattern is consistent: when US 7- to 10-year-olds post HPRs in the 90+ range or carry high Elo ratings, they go on to the sport’s biggest stages. On that basis, the future US Equestrian Open winners could come from any of the horses listed above.
For more on the future stars of the US Equestrian Open, listen to the latest podcast episode!
Read this week's Open Weekly article here.
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