Bouckaert Begins: Who to Watch on Friday

The US Equestrian Open of Eventing begins! The action begins in Bouckaert this weekend and with it comes a maximum points opportunity: more than 25 horses are entered at the CCI4*-S, meaning 50 points are on offer for the winner.

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The dressage phase kicks off Friday at 8:30 a.m., with show jumping later that afternoon at 1:15 p.m. Cross-country takes place Saturday at 12:10 p.m (All times are EST).

Fans can follow all the action live and for free on the USEF Network livestream.

Dressage

Based on EquiRatings' 6RA (the average of a horse's last six FEI dressage scores) Isabelle Bosley's Conner heads the entire field with a 6RA of 24.9. In Conner's eight international starts, he has never scored above 30.0 in dressage. His most recent outing was a win at the CCI3*-L at Maryland in October, where he posted a 24.8. He is only nine years old and is moving up to the four-star short level for the first time this weekend.

That step up matters. The CCI4*-S test introduces greater complexity and difficulty, including flying changes, which Conner has not been asked to perform in international competition before. Whether he can carry his exceptional dressage form into a harder test is one of the key questions of Friday morning. The potential is clearly there. And if he does delivers, the venue record could be under threat. The best score ever recorded here is a 25.1 from Buck Davidson and Carlevo in 2022.

Boyd Martin enters four horses in the field, and his Commando 3 ranks second in dressage with a 6RA of 27.6. Commando 3 finished on the podium twice at five-star level last year and is a known quantity at this level. Martin and Commando 3 carry a 20% win chance heading into the weekend, the highest in the field.

Just three of the last 10 Bouckaert winners were leading after dressage. The course here has consistently exerted itself in the jumping phases. In fact, only one combination in the entire history of the Bouckaert CCI4*-S, across 280 starters, has ever finished on their dressage score. That was Jacob Fletcher and Atlantic Domino in 2018, who set the Bouckaert record finishing score of 30.0. A record that still stands.

Show Jumping

Show jumping follows immediately after dressage on Friday afternoon.

To find the best showjumpers in the field, each horse is ranked using three numbers. First, each horse’s average jumping penalties from their last six FEI runs. That figure is then compared to the average penalties recorded by all competitors over those same courses, to reflect how difficult the tracks were. The final number adjusts the horse’s average against the course average. The lower the figure, the better. It shows a horse jumping better than the overall level of difficulty would suggest.

Based on this, the top-ranked show jumper in the field is Zachary Brandt and Direct Advance, with an adjusted SJ average of -3.9. Direct Advance has been among the most consistent performers having not  knocked a rail since 2023, and even then it was a single pole. He is likely to sit back from the dressage standings, meaning a demanding show jumping course is exactly what he'll be hoping for.

Caroline Pamukcu and HSH Connor rank second at -3.6, and HSH Connor brings the longest incoming clear streak in the field: eight consecutive international show jumping rounds without a pole. This partnership also carry a 10% win chance, second only to Boyd Martin. 

The historical clear rate at Bouckaert is 35%. 94 of 268 starters have gone clear with no jump or time faults. However, it can vary by year: 2021 saw 15 combinations go clear, while 2016 produced none. Show jumping here is not a formality. Of the last eight show jumping leaders, four went on to win, suggesting it is a significant but not decisive lead indicator. 

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