Who to Watch at Wellington Week 9
The $500,000 Bainbridge Companies Grand Prix is a proving ground, where clear rounds are rare and new stars often emerge. With a field packed with Olympic medallists, in-form partnerships, and rising challengers, Week 9 offers a clear question: who arrives with the form to win?
Three weeks from now, Wellington International will host the Rolex US Equestrian Open Final, the climax of a 12 weeks of showjumping at WEF. But before that, there is one more five-star Grand Prix to run. Saturday night's CSI5* $500,000 Bainbridge Companies Grand Prix is the last chance for combinations to prove they are arriving to Week 12 with momentum, form, and a statement already made under the lights.
It is also, historically, a Grand Prix that makes new stars. Eight of the last ten winners were claiming their first-ever CSI5* Grand Prix victory when they crossed the timers in Wellington. The course is tougher than almost anywhere else on the global circuit with a 16% Round 1 clear rate over the past decade, against a global five-star average of 28–35%. Whoever wins here on Saturday night will have earned it.
Who are the US Contenders?
Kent Farrington & Greya are the form combination of the WEF season and arguably one of the most in-form combinations in the world right now. Greya is currently the third-highest rated horse globally on the EquiRatings Elo system and will be the ones the rest of the field are measuring themselves against. Together, this partnership have nine five-star Grand Prix and carry a 58% predicted clear probability tonight, the highest in the field. Their jump-off record is equally imposing: 11 clears from 15, nine wins, a 60% win rate once they reach the second round. A win here would be the perfect statement of intent ahead of the Open Final.
Marilyn Little & La Contessa are the form horse of the US squad coming into this week. Four clears from their last five rounds at five-star level. This is an 80% strike rate, the highest recent clear rate of any combination in tonight's field. Most recently, they jumped a double clear in last weekend's CSIO4* Nations Cup that helped seal Team USA's victory. Little has been building quietly and convincingly.
McLain Ward & High Star Hero already have their Week 7 5* 160 Grand Prix win on the board this season. In a jump off, they remain one of the most dangerous combinations in the field. Six clears from eight jump-offs, four wins, a 63% podium rate. Ward's experience in a speed round is a known quantity at this level. Their Round 1 clear rate of 43% suggests the first round can be a slightly bigger hurdle than for some of their rivals but if they make the jump-off, the numbers say they are very likely to finish on the podium.
Laura Kraut & Bisquetta bring five-star pedigree and experience. A 52% clear rate at this level, a Rolex Grand Prix of Dublin win, and a 47% predicted clear probability tonight. Bisquetta has already shown she can jump clear when a course asks hard questions and this one will.
Callie Schott & Garant are perhaps the quietest name in the US group, but the data is not quiet. An Elo rating of 752, a double clear in last weekend's CSIO4* Nations Cup, and a 44% predicted clear probability. Garant is one of the highest-rated horses in the field and Schott's composure on course has been consistent throughout the season. A strong result here would add real weight to their Week 12 credentials.
Who are the International Threats?
The US does not have this to itself. Darragh Kenny & Eddy Blue sit second in predicted clear probability at 56%, fractionally behind Farrington. Eddy Blue's 58% non-jump-off clear rate at this level is elite. They sit only behind Farrington on the EquiRatings Prediction Centre with a 9% win chance.
Daniel Bluman & Corbie V.V. arrive with momentum: eight clears in their last nine top-level starts, a CSI4* Grand Prix win in Ocala as their most recent outing, and a 64% clear rate over 14 rounds. In a jump-off, Bluman is a proven operator. Their win probability sits equal to Bisquetta and Dallas Vegas Batilly. This is a combination that cannot be written off.
Ben Maher & Katanga V/h Dingeshof represent the broadest five-star CV in the international group. Seven jump-off clears from 13 (54%), nearly half resulting in a podium. The 2024 Olympic gold medallist partnership is competing in their first five-star Grand Prix of 2026 - rustiness or sharpness, Saturday night will tell.
Forty combinations are set to start. EquiRatings predicts six clear rounds, well below the global five-star average, in a class that has consistently delivered a small, hard-fought jump-off. Around 51% of those who make it to the second round have historically gone double clear here. The margin between winning and the rest is rarely more than a fraction of a second.
Three weeks from now, the US Equestrian Open Final takes centre stage. Before that, Saturday night in Wellington offers the last word in the five-star conversation and the combinations who deliver it will carry that confidence into Week 12.
