WEF Week 7: Who's Building Toward the Open Final?

The Winter Equestrian Festival is at its halfway point. Tonight brings the second CSI5* 160 Grand Prix of the season to the International Arena, and while the spotlight is firmly on this evening's class, the bigger picture is already coming into focus. Five weeks from now, the Rolex US Equestrian Open Final of Jumping will take centre stage in Week 12. For the athletes lining up tonight, every round between now and then is a building block.

What to expect tonight

This is one of the toughest five-star tracks on the global circuit. The Round 1 average clear rate here is just 16% - compared to 28-35% at many other CSI5* 1.60m shows worldwide. From a field of 32 combinations tonight, EquiRatings is predicting just six clear rounds. Once riders make the jump-off, the picture improves. Historically, 58% of those who qualify go on to jump clear. But getting there is the challenge.

So which US riders are making a case?

McLain Ward & High Star Hero

Three time winner of this class, McLain Ward has chosen High Star Hero as his weapon of choice tonight. They carry a 71% jump-off clear rate with three wins from seven jump-off appearances. 

Ward's predicted clear chance tonight sits at 33%, with a 4% win chance. Those numbers are modest on paper, but once he's in a second round, the conversion is ruthless -  nearly a 50% win rate in jump-offs tells you everything about how this pair handles pressure. 

Lillie Keenan & Fasther

Keenan has been quietly assembling one of the most consistent five-star profiles for Team USA. Fasther carries a 50% clear rate across 12 CSI5* 1.60m rounds in the past 12 months. Her predicted clear chance is 40%, with a 6% win chance. 

The jump-off record makes for even better reading: six clears from ten jump-offs, six podium finishes. When this pair reaches a second round, they land on the podium. 

Katie Dinan & Out Of The Blue SCF

Dinan and Out Of The Blue SCF carry a 30% clear chance tonight and a 3% win chance — sitting at the competitive edge of the field rather than among the headline names. But that's often where Week 12 stories begin. A 5th place finish with a time penalty at the World Cup of Ocala last week shows they are operating at this level and improving. Five weeks is enough time to build.

Natalie Dean & Acota M

Back in five-star competition after a seven-month absence, Dean and Acota M carry a 30% clear chance and a 2% win chance tonight. Having jumped double clear at this venue during WEF Week 5 last year, they may rediscover that form tonight. A name to keep on your radar as the season builds toward the Final.

The International Names They'll Have to Beat

The American riders aren't building toward Week 12 in isolation. Three names in tonight's field are impossible to ignore.

WEF Week 5 winners, Richard Vogel and Gangster Montdesir, arrive with only four rounds at CSI5* 1.60m. But they have produced four clears. A 100% clear rate. The sample size is small but so is the fault count. Keep an eye out for this ten-year-old tonight.

Runners up in this class last year, Darragh Kenny and Eddy Blue enter as the statistical favourites. a 56% predicted clear chance, a 14% win chance, and a 67% clear rate over the past 12 months. They jump last tonight. 

Then there's the streak. Nina Mallevaey and Dynastie de Beaufour have cleared 11 consecutive CSI5* 1.60m rounds. They are only the 8th combination since 2010 to manager 11 consecutive clears in a row. EquiRatings gives them a 55% clear chance and a 13% win chance tonight. With top-five finishes in their last nine five-star Grands Prix, this partnership represents the standard every American will need to meet come Week 12.

The Bigger Picture

There are four CSI5* Grand Prix in the WEF season: Weeks 5, 7, 9, and 12. Week 5 is done. Tonight is Week 7. Two more chances to win big before the Final.

In a class where only one in six combinations is expected to go clear in Round 1, the combinations that arrive in Week 12 in contention will be those who have proven they can handle this level consistently, not just occasionally.

Tonight is the next data point. Week 12 is the destination.