It Would Take a Meltdown for Mendoza Loor to Lose This One

Five combinations from four nations contest this week’s qualifier, but only one rider looks poised for first.

Julio Mendoza Loor enters this week’s Grand Prix Freestyle at WEC Ocala operating in a scoring range the rest of the field hasn’t seen. Recent qualifiers have largely been decided in the low-70s band, so when a combination can reliably produce 75% or better, the predictions become obvious. The spotlight focuses. It becomes that rider’s class to lose, and they don’t need a miracle to win it.

A Tier of His Own

This week, Mendoza Loor is that rider. 

He and Jewel’s Goldstrike average 77%, with a personal best of 84.230%. You don’t hit those numbers by accident. That requires repetition, and lots of it.

The pair have 16 FEI freestyles together. They have repeatedly scored 78–80% across venues and seasons, including two Series wins last year and a victory at WEC last March. This is an established partnership with Olympic mileage and a long scoring record at the top end. An easy favorite.

No other combination in this field averages above 73%.

That separation is not subtle. In recent qualifiers, winning scores have frequently landed in the low 70s. A pair capable of delivering a high-70 test does not need to stretch for a personal best to control this class. Mendoza Loor’s average already sits where most of this field’s peak ambitions lie.

Could someone produce an outlier performance? Of course. But the rest of the field will need to find something remarkable to pull off an upset.

The Ride for Second

The remaining combinations operate inside a narrow scoring window where the order can shift with a slightly more uphill extended trot or a more settled collected walk. Across this group, the separation between second and fifth sits within roughly three percentage points.

By the averages, Claire Darnell and Harrold S should be the clear pick for second. They average 72.9% together and have reached 77% once in the past. But here's the problem with this scoring band: the data doesn't always hold. Two weeks ago in Ocala, they finished second on 70.5%—just 0.2% behind Charlotte Osborne and Fruhlingszauber, who won with a 70.775% personal best.

When most of the field lives between 70 and 73%, small variations matter more than long-term trends. A couple of points below average is enough to reshuffle the entire podium. One slightly tense walk transition, one loss of rhythm in a pirouette, and second becomes fourth.

That scoring compression has been a consistent feature of recent qualifiers. Several combinations who regularly score above 75% have focused more heavily on the Special this season. The result is that many freestyle podiums are being decided inside that low-70s band. This is not a commentary on quality. It simply reflects what the top-end talent is choosing to prioritize this season.

But when an established high-scoring combination does enter a freestyle, none of that volatility matters. The predictions become immediately clear.

This week, Mendoza Loor and Jewel's Goldstrike take that role.

If they perform to their established average—and there is no indication that they won't—"Goldy" will be cantering with a blue sash on Saturday. If they somehow do not, well… we'll have a lot to unpack next week.