Is the US Equestrian Open Winnable from the West Coast?

The US Equestrian Open of Eventing was designed to connect the country's top CCI4*-S competitions into a year-long championship. But there's an inherent tension in the format: American eventing is split down the middle, with the sport's traditional power centers—Kentucky, Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania—clustered on the East Coast, while the West operates almost as its own circuit.

It's not just geography. It's logistics, it's culture, and increasingly, it's strategy.

This raises a compelling question heading into the 2026 series: Can a West Coast-based rider actually win it all?

The West Coast Disadvantage (Or Is It?)

There are five West Coast venues in the Open series—Twin Rivers, Galway Downs, Rebecca Farm, Aspen Farms, and Woodside—hosting six total qualifiers. Yes, that's fewer events than the East Coast offers. And yes, West Coast fields tend to be smaller. In fact, none in 2025 exceeded 12 starters.

But here's what the numbers actually show: it's absolutely winnable from the West.

Under the Open's points structure, wins at qualifiers with fewer than 25 starters earn 40 points instead of 50. Six West Coast wins? That's 240 points. Last year, Boyd Martin won the series with 260 points - just 20 more. Phillip Dutton's second-place finish came in at 235 points.

The gap isn't insurmountable. In fact, it's small enough that one strategic East Coast trip—say, Kentucky with two horses—can close it entirely.

And we've already seen it work. Tamie Smith and James Alliston both finished high on the 2025 leaderboard despite being West Coast based. They didn't need to dominate the East Coast circuit - they just needed to dominate their circuit, then supplement strategically.

That's not a disadvantage. That's a blueprint.

The Kentucky Factor

The great equalizer? The Cosequin Lexington CCI4*-S at Kentucky Horse Park, which consistently draws huge entries. It's the one East Coast event where West Coast riders routinely make the trip and now with the US Open in the mix it's for good reason. A strong result will guarantee you high points, and if you bring multiple horses, it's a chance to bank serious totals in a single weekend.

In 2025, Tamie Smith, James Alliston, Molly Duda, and Tommy Greengard all made the pilgrimage east for Kentucky.

The Contenders

If a West Coast rider is going to break through in 2026, it'll likely be one of these four. Each brings a different approach, but all have the horsepower to compete.

Tamie Smith: The Rebecca Farm Specialist

Tamie Smith doesn't just compete at Rebecca Farm in Montana - she owns it. Across 13 CCI4*-S starts there, she's posted 11 top-three finishes, including multiple wins. Her record there is nothing short of dominant, and in a series where consistency matters, that's a built-in advantage.

This year, Smith brings three confirmed 4* horses: Lillet 3, Kynan, and Danito. But the wildcard is D'Luxe Steel, a rising star who's won both his CCI3* attempts. If he steps up to 4*, Smith has a serious string.

The strategic play? Rack up points at Rebecca Farm and Woodside, make a calculated Kentucky run with multiple horses, and let the numbers stack up.

James Alliston: The Volume Shooter

James Alliston's 2025 campaign was a masterclass in sheer volume. He competed six different horses at CCI4*-S level, including three wins. His breakout star was HMR Rolan, who won back-to-back 4* events on his four-star debut - a breakthrough that immediately marked him as a serious contender for 2026.

Alliston also has proven commodities in Paper Jam, Nemesis, Cora, and Karma, and Irish Pop. That depth gives him flexibility: he can double-up at West Coast events, absorb an off day with one horse, and still stay competitive.

Twin Rivers has been particularly kind to Alliston. He won six consecutive editions between 2021 and 2025, and with the venue hosting two Open legs, Alliston has a serious chance to rack up points.

Molly Duda: The Rising Threat

Molly Duda campaigned two horses at 4* in 2025—Disco Traveler and Carlingford’s He’s A Clover—but her string is building. Jutopia impressed at the three-star level with Duda, including a one-off second-place finish at Rebecca Farm’s CCI4*-S with Tamie Smith.

If 21-year-old Duda steps up with Jutopia and continues developing her other prospects, she could quietly accumulate enough points to challenge for a podium spot. She won't win on volume, but she doesn't need to - she just needs clean, consistent performances.

Tommy Greengard: The Commitment Question

Tommy Greengard was on track to have a stellar 2025 series before his campaign stalled mid-season. In fact, at the time we thought he could win the whole thing. With Joshuay MBF and That's Me Z, he showed he had the horses and the talent but not the sustained commitment across enough qualifiers.

In 2026, the question is simple: will he go all-in?

If Greengard commits to the full calendar, doubles up strategically, and makes a Kentucky appearance, he's got a legitimate shot. But as we saw last year, potential and execution are two different things.

The Dark Horse: Kaylawna Smith-Cook

Don't sleep on Kaylawna Smith-Cook, Tamie's daughter. She competed at CCI4*-S level from 2021-2023 and currently has three horses campaigning successfully at CCI3* level: Piccadilly's Pride ME, Dealas, and Coco Chanel.

If even one of those horses steps up to 4* this season, Kaylawna becomes a contender - especially if she mirrors her mother's approach of picking her spots carefully and executing when it counts.

The Path to Victory

So can a West Coast rider win the 2026 US Equestrian Open? The blueprint exists:

1. Dominate at home. Win or podium at all six West Coast qualifiers. Even at 40 points per win, that's 240 points.
2. Double up strategically. Bring multiple horses to high-point qualifiers like Kentucky. Two horses in the top five at a single event can net 85+ points in one weekend.
3. Play the volume game. You need depth. No single horse will win the series; it's always going to be a string effort.
4. Don't overthink the East Coast. You don’t need to bounce around states like Pennsylvania and Virginia. One or two well-timed trips east can be enough if your West Coast foundation is solid.

Tamie Smith, James Alliston, Molly Duda, and Tommy Greengard all have the tools. The question is whether they'll commit to the strategy and whether 2026 will be the year a West Coast rider takes it all.

Stay tuned. The series starts in less than two months, and the West has something to prove.

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