Dressage at Devon has always been a prestigious stop on the calendar, but as a qualifier in the US Equestrian Open of Dressage, it takes on a new identity. For the first time this season, the Grand Prix is more than just a warm-up. With 17 entries, only 15 will advance to the freestyle (and from there, just 10 earn Series points). The math makes Friday matter.

As the inaugural Final approaches, leaderboard pressure is at an all-time high. The Top 18 secure their ticket, but leaderboard placing also dictates the payout. Thousands of dollars hinge on who climbs and who slips. With the largest field of the season, Devon is set to be the most consequential qualifier yet.

Devon’s Math Problem

Wellington’s fields were often large and packed with talent, but even their biggest qualifier (AGDF 3) topped out at 15 riders, which meant everyone advanced to the freestyle. Not so in the Dixon Oval. Here, the Grand Prix does more than seed the freestyle — it’s a filter. With 17 starters, two combinations will be cut before Saturday night. And once the freestyle begins, only the top 10 will earn Series points.

That’s the first equation. The second is the leaderboard math. Six of the current top 18 are competing this weekend, which guarantees movement in the standings. Riders can climb into new payout tiers… or slide down them.

Take Benjamin Ebeling. He comes in 14th with 57 points, but a podium here would launch him as many as seven spots into the top seven. A win could tie him for 6th. In dollar terms, that’s the difference between a $1,000 payout and a $3,000 payout, with another qualifier still to come in his Florida backyard.

But leaderboard math cuts both ways. With a field this deep, it’s not just about who climbs. It’s also about who siphons points away. Several riders in this week’s field sit outside the top 18, meaning they won’t qualify for the Finals, but they can still shape the standings by stealing points from those who will. Six combinations are averaging within 1.5 percentage points of one another, a cluster that includes Series number 10 Charlotte Jorst. She’ll be chasing at least 10 points to solidify her spot, while the likes of Laine Ashker, Meagan Davis, Tiago Ernesto, Mathilde Blais Tetreault, and Allison Carmichael will be looking to disrupt her path.

The Final Equation

Series leader Anna Marek and runner-up Eline Eckroth go head-to-head in Devon with an unusual twist: both have already logged six of six qualifying runs. That means the only way to add to their leaderboard totals is to improve on past results.

Eckroth’s path is easier. She still carries two 10-point scores, so a finish of fifth or better would raise her total. Marek, though, faces a tougher equation.

She improves only if she wins. Despite leading the Series by nearly twenty points, she has just one victory to her name. With second and third both worth 17 points, only a first place adds to her total. Remarkably, she could also lose the lead this weekend. If Eckroth were to win, Marek’s 19-point cushion would vanish. It’s statistically unlikely based on averages, but in this sport, certainty is never guaranteed.

A Few More Combinations to Watch

With a field this deep, every rider brings a storyline. It would be difficult to tell them all, but here are a few more combinations worth a watch this weekend.

Kevin Kohmann & Dünensee

Devon reunites one of Wellington’s favorite rivalries: Kohmann’s lyrical Dünensee versus Marek’s powerful Fire Fly. The two are often separated by a single percentage point, and Kohmann holds the highest personal best in the field (79.240%). Marek has the winning record against Dünensee, but if she leaves points on the table, Dünensee will be there to scoop them up.

Benjamin Ebeling & Bellena

On the rise since their freestyle debut in April, Ebeling and Bellena set a new personal best of 76.615% in Austria this summer. With a 75%+ average, they’re one of Marek’s strongest challengers.

Brittany Fraser-Beaulieu & Jaccardo

Jaccardo has only one FEI freestyle on record — a 76.125% — but that score alone tops the rest of the field’s averages. Add Fraser-Beaulieu’s Olympic experience and proven freestyle record with All In, and this pair could upset the top five.

Camille Carier Bergeron & Finnlanderin

Finnlanderin made her freestyle debut at Devon last year and earned a 77.280% personal best. Bergeron has been building steadily since, and another high-70s ride could move her from a top-five lock into podium contention.

Wild Cards

Several combinations logged summer personal bests at national shows, including Kobus (76.225%), DSP Dauphin (75.113%), Zeppelin (74.925%), Toronto Lightfoot (73.675%), and Don Divino (70.650%). If they can translate that form to a CDI in Devon, they can disrupt the points race. One to watch in particular is Francine Gentile’s Don Divino, making his first-ever CDI freestyle start. At 70%, he isn’t a podium pick, but he could deny leaderboard climbers valuable points.

Looking Ahead

Dressage at Devon will shape not only who qualifies for the Final but also how much money riders take home at season’s end. Winning here is an achievement in its own right, yet this year it doubles as positioning for November. The Grand Prix matters now in the same way it will at the Final, where only the top 15 move on to the freestyle and a $200,000 prize pool awaits. In many ways, this weekend is the dress rehearsal.

Tune in live to USEF Network to watch the Grand Prix action starting Friday night.

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