Darcourt vs. Kohmann: It Looks Like a Toss-Up. It's Not.

On the two metrics that usually settle these conversations — average and personal best — Caroline Darcourt and Kevin Kohmann are functionally identical. She averages 75.467; he averages 75.460. His personal best is 79.240, hers 78.170. Their podium rates tell a similar story: Kohmann finishes top three in about 62% of his freestyle starts, Darcourt in about 56%. By all of that, you'd hand the slight edge to Kohmann and move on.

You'd be wise to dig a little deeper.

Kohmann posted a 75.790 in his most recent start — his lowest freestyle score in months, after three consecutive outings above 77. Darcourt, meanwhile, has gone 74.695, 76.040, 76.760 in her last three. Each one better than the last.

Their consistency patterns are worth noting too. Darcourt tends to land within a point and a half of her average. Kohmann can swing two points either way — and in dressage, that's frequently the difference between first and fourth. He has the higher ceiling, albeit barely, the longer record, and the podium rate. She has the momentum and the consistency. At this particular moment, that bodes well for her.

What she does with her edge has pretty serious Series implications. A win — 20 points this week — takes her from 32 to 52, past Christian Simonson in second, past Geñay Vaughn who currently leads at 45. In one result she goes from tied for sixth to first overall, in her fourth qualifier of the season. She would be the first Swedish rider to ever lead the series. There are qualifiers beyond AGDF, but four strong qualifying rides would put her in a position that's comfortable, if not untouchable.

Holzer and Wandres Would Like a Word

Ashley Holzer's career freestyle average is 73%. That's the number you'd glance at and move past. Don't.

Her last three freestyle scores are 74.840, 75.010, and 75.290 — consecutive combination bests, with recent form running more than three points above that career average. What the average is measuring and what is currently happening are two different things.

It's also worth knowing who Ashley Holzer is. She won a team bronze at the 1988 Olympics, competed at three more Games after that — 2004, 2008, 2012 — and carries a 33% FEI win rate, the second-highest in this field (we'll get to the first in a moment). Hawtins San Floriana has been her partner since April 2024. This combination is still ascending, and Holzer has spent her career turning horses into international contenders. Whether she challenges for the top two on Friday or finishes just outside them, this pair is worth watching.

Which brings us to Frederic Wandres. He holds a 41% FEI win rate across 105 starts. For context, Isabell Werth — the most decorated equestrian athlete of all time — wins 46% of the time. Wandres and Verrenberg have only three freestyle starts together, but the scores read 73.39, 74.82, 75.86 — a clean ascending line in a small sample that, given who's holding the reins, probably shouldn't be dismissed as coincidence. Verrenberg is an emerging horse with an unknown ceiling. An Olympic gold medalist is developing him. A podium here isn't the likely outcome, but upon reflection, would not be the most surprising thing that's ever happened in this arena.

Ice Ice Maybe

P.J. Rizvi and Vanilla Ice require their own category because the normal statistical framework simply doesn't apply.

Vanilla Ice is a stunning 14-year-old Lusitano stallion whose freestyle is set to none other than "Ice Ice Baby" by the horse's namesake, Vanilla Ice. His two starts produced a 76.590 and a 69.540, the latter after a visibly tense test. The range on this pair is extraordinary — both ends of it. Whether Friday produces the former or the latter appears to be information that becomes available approximately 30 seconds before the music starts.

What can be said with confidence: this is one of the most entertaining freestyles in the field. Good day or tense day, Vanilla Ice is going to light up that arena, and the crowd will eat it up.

Watch Rizvi and Vanilla Ice and the rest of the field Friday at 7:15 ET on the USEF Network. Sign up for free as a fan to stream the action.