A Win in California Confirms the Series. A Top Five in Pennsylvania Decides the Podium.
Twin Rivers Fall International and Plantation Field International both run this weekend, on opposite coasts. Tamie Smith has 3 of the 6 entries in one. Caroline Pamukcu has 1 of 27 in the other. Both weekends settle something.
Tamie Smith leads the US Equestrian Open of Eventing on 235 points. All six of her counting results came at East Coast qualifiers: Carolina International x2, Ocala International Festival x2, Cosequin Lexington Kentucky and Tryon International.
This weekend she is back home on the West Coast for the first counting run of her campaign there, with three of the six entries in the Twin Rivers Fall International CCI4*-S. The EquiRatings Prediction Centre gives those three a combined 97% win chance.
On the other coast, Plantation Field International has 27 entries and Caroline Pamukcu has one of them. She sits fourth on 205 points, five behind Boyd Martin and ten behind Will Coleman, and neither of them is entered this weekend or at the two qualifiers that follow (yet). These are qualifiers 17 and 18 of 20. Only Stable View Oktoberfest and Woodside Fall International follow.
Both weekends run on the same rule. Six results count and nothing more. Smith and Pamukcu each have six already, so every point earned this weekend has to beat something they are carrying.
Smith's weakest counting score is a 20 from Ocala, and that is the first one a Twin Rivers result would replace. Twin Rivers Fall has six entries, which puts it on the 40 point scale, and in a field that size every combination that completes scores.
A win takes her to 255. A win with a second behind it takes her to 265. A win and a third makes 260, the exact total Boyd Martin won the inaugural Series on last year. The worst available outcome, all three of her horses finishing behind the other three entries, still moves her to 240 and leaves her leading the Series.
Smith has serious venue form. She has 23 starts at Twin Rivers since 2011 and three wins. Her 19 clear cross-country rounds from those 23 starts is the highest count anyone holds at the venue. Both venue records are hers, a 24.4 dressage and a 28.4 finishing score, set with Mai Baum in 2019. Danito has been here twice and finished second and third. His 25.1 from 2020 is the second best dressage mark recorded at the venue.
The horses back it up. Danito won the Tryon qualifier in May and Jump To Day D won at Ocala in April, so two of her three rides are already qualifier winners this season. Spiro P, nine years old, took the Carolina CCI3*-S in March. The venue, the form and the horses all point the same way.
Caroline Pamukcu's weakest counting score is a 20 from Carolina, so anything she earns at Plantation Field has to beat that first. Plantation Field has 27 entries and the Series scale turns on 26 starters, so two withdrawals between now and the start of dressage could change what every placing is worth.
On the 50 point scale, sixth place moves her level with Boyd Martin on 210. Fifth takes her to 215 and level with Will Coleman. Fourth takes her to 220, clear of both, and past the 215 she finished the 2025 Series on.
On the 40 point scale she needs a podium to do the same work. She has two more entered at Stable View at the end of the month, which means her route to second runs across both weekends.
The EquiRatings Prediction Centre gives HSH Tolan King a 2% win chance, the tenth best in the field, with 9% for the podium and 46% for the top 10. Pamukcu also has one of the strongest venue records of any rider entered. Five starts, three cross-country rounds and three clears, third place last year with HSH Blake and tenth with King's Especiale.
Two qualifiers follow this weekend. Stable View Oktoberfest on September 25 and Woodside Fall International on October 2. Woodside is in California, and neither Will Coleman nor Boyd Martin are likely to make that trip. Neither are entered at Stable View either.
That fixes their totals. Coleman finishes on 215 and Martin on 210, second and third as things stand, and the fight for those two places is between Caroline Pamukcu in fourth on 205 and Lucienne Bellissimo in fifth on 175. Pamukcu has one ride at Plantation Field this weekend and two at Stable View. Bellissimo also has two in at Stable View.
Tamie Smith needs 255 to put the Series beyond all of them. One win at Twin Rivers gets her there, and so does a second and a third. Anything less and the title is still live at Stable View.
One number can change the maths. Stable View Oktoberfest sits on 24 entries, two short of the 26 starters that would move it from the 40 point scale to the 50. On the bigger scale Pamukcu's ceiling rises to 270 and 255 would no longer be enough for Smith.
The Series winner takes $25,000, with $15,000 for second and $10,000 for third. Those two places stay open into October whatever happens at Twin Rivers. A 265 would also be a Series record, five clear of the 260 Boyd Martin set in the inaugural season, and Smith has Woodside Fall International on October 2 to push it higher.
Then there is the part the points do not settle. The US Equestrian Open of Eventing Final runs at Morven Park International & Fall Horse Trials from October 8 to 11 for a $200,000 purse, and the Series leaderboard decides only the order of draw there, run in reverse order of Series position. Whoever wins the Series arrives at Morven Park with everything still to prove.
Six entries in California. Twenty seven in Pennsylvania. One win confirms it, and the $200,000 is still on the table.
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